With the Americans in the immediate vicinity the Russians are limited in their options, as any accident involving the injury of US citizens and/or US ships would result in catastrophic consequences for the Russians. However, it is clear the Russians are no longer motivated by the prospect of WTO ascension and increased international diplomatic importance; hence, the real question in this unfortunate episode is what the Europeans will do. Of course, the US has made its disapproval quite clear with Bush, Cheney, Rice, McC...

With the Americans in the immediate vicinity the Russians are limited in their options, as any accident involving the injury of US citizens and/or US ships would result in catastrophic consequences for the Russians. However, it is clear the Russians are no longer motivated by the prospect of WTO ascension and increased international diplomatic importance; hence, the real question in this unfortunate episode is what the Europeans will do. Of course, the US has made its disapproval quite clear with Bush, Cheney, Rice, McCain, and Obama all explicitly condemning the response to the conflict in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. However, the US has few bargaining chips - the military is locked up in Afghanistan and Iraq and we do not purchase very much oil from the Russians. The Europeans must decide if they are willing to bear the severe economic consequences of a confrontation with Russia, as they receive much of their oil supplies from Russia. The West has witnessed Russia’s ability to play geopolitics with oil in their dealings with the Ukraine, who has seen dramatic decreases in their oil supplies from Russia since the Orange Revolution four years ago. In the recent past the Europeans have shown themselves to be unwilling to risk the consequences as Chancellor Merkel (Germany) and President Sarkozy (France) blocked US recommendations for admitting Georgia (including the breakaway provinces) and the Ukraine into NATO. Yet, with the Russians formally recognizing the breakaway regions of Georgia as legitimate states (using Kosovo as their justification), Merkel has come out strongly against Russia and has promised action. The Russians still clearly believe that, despite angering much of the West, it will continue to prosper through oil sales to Europe. I believe (and hope) that Merkel and Sarkozy as well as other states dependent on Russian oil will reconsider their rejections to Georgian NATO ascension, to show that, not only will the international community not stand for Russian aggression in former Soviet satellites, but also that NATO and the West still believe in a peaceful Europe and are not willing to allow the mistakes of the past to replay themselves in the future. If the Europeans continue to waffle and America continues to back up its speeches with only more empty rhetoric, Eastern Europe and Central Asian states will see that the West is not committed to limiting Russia's bullying, and will have the unsavory choice of joining Russia's sphere of influence or bracing for the swift action we have seen in Georgia recently and in much of Eastern Europe and Central Asia in the past.

I'm hoping it will be a repeat of the 'Thirteen Days' when Kennedy averted nuclear war with letters to Kruschev - then again, Kennedy had a brain! So who knows? I would not underestimate Russia at this point!